Paul's Cowboy Picks for 2026

We’re back! This is the third year of running the Cowboy portfolio. We’ve done exceptionally well in the last couple of years, boasting returns of.

• 2024: +56.2%

• 2025: +44.2%

Question is: Can we repeat the magic? We’ll certainly give it our best shot.

Here’s the video where I break down every pick from the MoneyMoves studio:

Before we jump in: Important disclaimer:

Alright… saddle up - here we go!

1.In-House Unconstrained

We build portfolios across the spectrum, from conservative to moderate to unconstrained.

The Unconstrained has always been my personal favourite as I’m a stock guy at heart. The details:

• Allocation: Full equity exposure, worldwide allocation

• Benchmark: MSCI World

• Strategy: Built for long-term wealth creation

Side note:
A lot of people are asking about whether we’re in an AI bubble and whether investing is becoming too US-heavy.

We’re diving into that in the next episode - keep an eye on YouTube and your Mailbox.

2.Arbitrage

With spreads tightening further in 2026, the question is: Is arbitrage still worth it?

Short of the long: If margins stay roughly where they were in January, @ 0.35% net margin (assuming R200,000 capital), the outcome is still attractive:

• Individual base case: ~24% ROI

• Married base case: ~43% ROI

For the purposes of the portfolio, I take the average between the two.

3&4.Kore Potash and Southern Palladium

Development of mine projects in the Republic of Congo and South Africa, respectively.

We win in two ways:

1. Buyout scenario: Both these mines have potential buyers. A formal offer would likely reprice the stock meaningfully higher.

2. If there is no buyout, the mines will be developed and the project will run independently, in which case both projects are looking pretty solid with prospects for proper growth.

5.Argent

Argent is an industrial company on the JSE. Its share price wasn’t going anywhere up to about 2018, before management changed strategy:

They started acquiring small industrial businesses in the UK. This move proved pivotal, and the share price responded by moving from ~R5 to ~R30 over about 5-6 years.

Why I like Argent:

• Offshore expansion is working brilliantly

• Strong balance sheet with minimal debt

• Loads of cash on hand

• Cheap as chips

The bet here is simple: they keep executing, and we continue higher. This is one I’m happy to hold for a few years.

6.Kaspi

Kaspi is a fintech solution in… wait for it… Kazakhstan. (Shoutout to all the Borat fans in the audience)

Kaspi started as a bank, and over the years, the company developed into three major segments, including a payments platform, a digital bank, and an E-commerce marketplace.

Why Kaspi?

• Generating proper cash flow with solid growth

• Very cheap valuation (<6 P/E)

• Expansion into Turkey

If they continue compounding their ecosystem, we could be in for a very nice surprise.

7&8.Taiwan Semiconductor and ASML

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) makes the semiconductor chips for companies like Nvidia and Apple. Demand for AI chips (especially GPUs) is exploding because everything from gaming to large language models requires an insane amount of computing power.

But… Are we not in bubble territory? Yes - we may be flirting it, BUT I believe we are witnessing a permanent structural shift in the economy to AI and data.

Today, companies like Microsoft and Google are pouring billions into infrastructure, and chips are still the bottleneck.

I’m not betting on which AI app wins - I’m betting on the infrastructure, which TWS and ASML provide. In a gold rush, it’s often better to own the shovels.

9.Caxton

Welcome back, my old friend.

Caxton operates in three industries (the 3xP’s): Paper, printing, and packaging.

Not very sexy, but very effective.

Why I like Caxton:

• No debt

• Strong cash generation

• Disciplined and effective acquisitions

• Cheap valuation

Caxton isn’t going to shoot the lights out - but it’s a steady compounder and serves as an anchor in the portfolio.

10.Foschini

This is a bet on higher household disposable income. When people have more money, they typically spend it on data, betting, and clothes.

Why do households have more money?

1. Commodities performed extremely well in 2025, directly resulting in good business for many SA companies. Good business = more profits = more employment and higher salaries.

2. Interest rates continue to be lower, meaning lower obligated repayments on debt

Lastly, the retail industry has a pretty lacklustre 2025, so valuations across the board are suppressed.

11.Bitcoin

Not yet part of the portfolio but I’m keeping a very close eye. We want to get in as close to the bottom of the cycle as possible.

Whilst there are thousands of moving parts that can determine the price, the main metric I’m watching is the 200-day moving average (currently around ~$65k).

If we drop below it and get a proper pullback into the $50k - $55k region, I’ll likely start nibbling.

Who Are We?😎

Paul Roux

Ingrid Kluckow

Our Full Offering🎖️

We have extended our value offering to five key pillars:

1. Investments

2. Insurance

3. Arbitrage

4. MoneyMoves

5. StockMaster (coming soon!)

Thank you for trusting us with your wealth. If you have any questions, want to review your portfolio, or just want to chat about what’s happening in the markets, feel free to reach out anytime.

Warm regards,
Paul & Ingrid
Sentient Wealth